Analysis of the BLS Employment Situation Report - Private Industry adds 83,000 Jobs.

MRINetwork Analysis of the BLS Employment Situation Report May 2011 Employment The full report can be seen here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm. This morning, the Labor Department reported U.S. unemployment rose from 9 to 9.1 percent in May while adding 54,000 non-farm jobs. Local governments shed 28,000 positions during the month while private industry added 83,000. The federal and state governments combined to cut just 1,000 positions during the month. Professional and technical services added the lion’s share of positions, tacking on 40,000 new jobs — most notably in accounting and bookkeeping (+17,800) and computer systems design and related services (+8,200). Temporary help services were mostly unchanged. The remaining job gains mostly came from health care (+27,200) which has added jobs throughout the recession.  Other sectors experienced very mild growth or losses, most so small as to be not statistically significant. The management, professional, and related occupations unemployment rate fell from 4.5 to 4.4 percent year over year while the four-year degree unemployment rate was down from 4.4 to 4.3 percent over the same period. These numbers are an aberration from what has been seen since the beginning of the year, yet they seem to be supported by other recent readings. The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell from 60.4 to 53.5 percent in May and the ADP Employment Report saw job growth fall from 177,000 in April to 38,000 in May. These other reports make it impossible to dismiss the Labor Department’s figures. However, there is reason to think May was an exception, and not a change in momentum. Some economists point to the supply chain disruptions resulting from March’s Japanese earthquake and tsunami hitting U.S. manufacturing in May.  The Manufacturing sector lost 5,000 jobs during the month—not a significant decrease from the 11.7 million person manufacturing workforce—its first loss in six months.  After today’s numbers, the U.S. remains on track to add between 1.5 and 2 million jobs during the year in total. With the disaster in Japan, continued skittishness in Europe over sovereign debts and heated unrest in the Middle East, May’s modest growth seems more an indicator of the resilience, rather than the fragility, of the U.S. economy.

Bank CFOs: Pink Slips At The Ready If Revenues Come Up Short

By Matthew Monks, American Banker
June 9, 2011
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In banking, the phrase "expense reduction" is often a euphemism for "layoffs."

The chief financial officers of Comerica Inc. and Huntington Bancshares Inc. avoided the L-word when speaking to investors on Wednesday but said their institutions are prepared to cut workers if revenue stays weak or the economy gets worse.

Both are hoping to avoid layoffs by attracting new customers: Comerica, of Dallas, is in the midst of buying a rival Texas bank. Huntington, of Columbus, Ohio, is keeping branches open longer and spending heavily to advertise its no-new-fees approach to banking.

But mounting pressure to cut costs means both are ready to send out pink slips if growth does not materialize.

Roughly "60% of expenses are people," Beth Acton, the chief financial officer of the $55 billion-asset Comerica, said at a New York investor conference sponsored by Deutsche Bank. "That's the key driver of what you can do to really impact the bottom line."

Donald Kimble, the CFO of the $53 billion-asset Huntington, said new employees represent a substantial proportion of the "incremental investments" that it has flexibility in "adjusting." Payroll costs — like its advertising budget — can be cut swiftly, he said.

"The investments we have been making for the most part have been in variable costs, whether it's traditional marketing dollars or head count," Kimble said. "I think those adjustments can be made within a quarter. So I think it is something that can be managed very efficiently and [be] very timely."

Comerica and Huntington are in similar positions in terms of spending. They are among a class of banks committed to investing to promote expansion, even if in the short term it causes expenses to trend higher than many investors would like.

Last quarter, Comerica was spending about 69 cents for every dollar of revenue; Huntington, about 65 cents per dollar of revenue. Those expense-per-dollar ratios are high compared with other large and midsize banks. Wells Fargo & Co.'s, for instance, is about 63 cents.

Investors pay close attention to expense-to-revenue ratios because they indicate how efficient an institution is at making money. Banks can improve the figure by cutting costs, increasing revenue or both.

"What happens in many large companies, particularly financial services companies, when they just focus on cost … it makes the relationship with the customer worse," said Jim Rowe, investor relations director at Wells Fargo. "It affects their ability to raise revenue, and we're not going to do that," he said.

Wells recently launched a cost-cutting initiative but has not shared many details.

The company did not mention layoffs on Wednesday, though it said last month that it was in the midst of letting go of several thousand mortgage specialists amid the housing downturn. In addition, the $400 million to $500 million Wells is spending per quarter to integrate the former Wachovia Corp. should decline by the first quarter of next year, Rowe said. Wells had 270,200 full- and part-time workers at the end of last quarter, up about 2,800 from a year earlier.

Comerica sees cost-saving and revenue-generating opportunities in its pending acquisition of Sterling Bancshares Inc. of Houston, Acton said.

It will consolidate some back-office functions and gain access to more clients for Comerica's treasury and wealth advisory services, she said.

Comerica's biggest tool for cutting costs has been layoffs, Acton said. A 17% head count reduction in the three years through 2010 enabled the bank to hold expenses steady despite increases in merit pay and rising regulatory costs, she said.

It had 8,955 full-time employees as of last quarter, 260 fewer than a year earlier.

Comerica has found it can earn just as much revenue with fewer people and is not planning to hire as the economy rebounds. Instead, a double-dip could lead to more staff cuts, Acton said.

Huntington had about 11,300 employees at the end of last quarter. That is about 641 more than a year earlier.

Actual employment numbers not that bad

Outside the Box

June 3, 2011, 2:48 p.m. EDT

Actual employment numbers not that bad
Commentary: Just take a look at the not-seasonally-adjusted data
By Lee Adler


QUEBEC (MarketWatch) — The market was disappointed with today’s employment data. But actual total employment, as opposed to the widely reported seasonally adjusted numbers, was nowhere near the catastrophe that the market’s reaction made it seem. The problem was that economists’ expectations were misguided, partly as a result of their focus on seasonally adjusted fictitious data, which showed a gain of 54,000 for May.

Actual (not-seasonally-adjusted) payrolls were up 682,000, according to the BLS establishment survey. That’s not gangbusters in relation to other years, but it’s not that bad. Since 2001, the average gain in payrolls in May has been 764,000. 2010 had a very strong gain of 1.10 million. That number was an outlier. The best year before that was 2007 at 942,000.

Today’s reported numbers were worse than non-recession years, however. Only 2008 at 570,000 and 2009 at 269,000 were worse.

In addition to the establishment survey, the BLS also surveys households. The total number of employed persons (actual, not seasonally adjusted) according to the BLS household survey rose by 367,000. The average gain in total employed in May from 2001 to 2010 was 344,000. From this perspective, today’s number was a little better than average.

Employment growth had been slowing early this year. The histrionics surrounding today’s announcement are an artifact of the fact that many economists had assumed without good reason that the numbers would be much better. However, the unadjusted actual numbers in the household survey had shown a decline in growth momentum since the end of last year, and today’s data simply continues that trend. The slowing employment growth momentum this year has been concurrent with the decline in stimulus spending that spurred the employment gains in the first place. In that context, slowing employment growth should have surprised no one.

Employment usually peaks in July of each year. Total employment usually peaks in July. Therefore, we should find out just how weak the employment trend is over the next couple of months. The question is whether last year’s peak employment numbers will be broken, and if so, by how much. The first few months of seasonal decline in the second half could show a shift to negative momentum if the usual second half employment declines are greater than last year’s.

The population has been growing faster than employment. Even if total employment grows slightly year over year, if the growth is less than population growth, the employment-to-population ratio will continue to fall. Even though the economy might grow in nominal terms life will get harder for a growing number of Americans.

But to Wall Street and the markets, that matters not.

Lee Adler is the publisher of The Wall Street Examiner.

see full article: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/actual-employment-numbers-not-that-bad-2011-06-03?link=MW_latest_news

April 2011 Employment summary

MRINetwork Analysis of the BLS Employment Situation Report April 2011 Employment The full report can be seen here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm. This morning, the Labor Department reported that 244,000 jobs were created in April. It was the single largest monthly gain in more than a year and the third consecutive month of job growth in excess of 200,000. The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 8.8 to 9 percent, a result of increased participation in the job market. This increase is likely a sign of improved employee confidence that is often seen on the tail end of employment downturns. While the total number of people unemployed during the month increased by 205,000, that growth came from job market reentrants and those who left jobs voluntarily. The total number of people unemployed because of job loss actually decreased by 65,000. Job growth in recent months has come from highly skilled positions, with employment increases occurring almost entirely among those with four-year college degrees. April, however, saw a sudden reversal in this trend as growth showed a broader base. In fact, the largest increase in employment in April was among those with nothing more than a high school diploma. This is understandable considering the growth of positions in department stores, bars and restaurants and amusement, gambling and recreational facilities –– all businesses known for having workers with less advanced education. In essence, job growth started with highly skilled and educated workers late last year. Now, the nearly 700,000 college-degreed individuals who have started jobs since January have begun to spend money at these establishments, sparking this hiring trend. In aggregate, though, those with four-year degrees continued to experience an unemployment rate nearly half that of those without any college experience. Similarly, the management, professional, and related occupation unemployment rate fell from 4.5 percent a year ago to 4.0 percent in April. Additionally, employment at temporary staffing agencies remained mostly unchanged during the month, indicating that job growth was entirely made up of permanent positions. The median duration of unemployment ticked down a full week to 20.7 weeks in April. If employment growth continues among industries requiring less skilled labor, those positions are more likely to be filled by people with longer durations of unemployment. While many facets of the labor market have seen gradual improvement, the length of unemployment and the size of the long-term unemployed population have only just begun to budge. Improvements in these two metrics may be the final trailing indicators of the labor market’s recovery. Stan Taylor, CSAM, 877-695-4688, staylor@mrvancouver.com.

Analysis of the BLS Employment Situation Report

MRINetwork Analysis of the BLS Employment Situation Report March 2011 Employment The full report can be seen here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm. Today, the Labor Department estimated a total of 216,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy during the month of March, beating economists’ estimates of 185,000. The unemployment rate ticked down from 8.9 percent the previous month to 8.8 percent. Job growth continued to be broad-based, with positions being added across most major industry groups. Public sector employment, however, declined by 16,000, led by job losses at the city and county government levels. March’s employment report showed an increased number of labor market re-entrants over recent months, especially among those with higher levels of education. While there was an increase of 255,000 jobs among those holding a Bachelor’s or higher, there was also an increase in the size of that workforce (employed and unemployed, but looking) of 328,000 people. To date, however, the pace of people re-entering the job market has not been large enough to prevent the unemployment rate from continuing to fall. While the vast majority of jobs being added are now permanent—in contrast to 2010—employers continue to add contract positions as well. March saw staffing firms add 28,800 temporary positions during the month for a total of 2.3 million, or 2.1 percent of the total U.S. workforce. The management, professional, and related occupation unemployment rate fell year-over-year from 4.7 to 4.3 percent in March. While still at a historically high level, its rate of decline to a more typical level is accelerating. In December, it was flat year-over-year, but by January, it was down 0.3 percent and by February, it was down 0.4 percent. Total labor market growth seems to be stabilizing at a pace that will cause the unemployment rate to decline. In fact, the current level of private sector job growth, over 200,000 per month, is above average for most non-recession periods. Between 2004 and 2007, the U.S. private sector added, on average, just 169,000 jobs per month. Brought to you each month by: Management Recruiters of Vancouver, LLC 360-695-4688 or 877-695-4688 Stan Taylor, CSAM staylor@mrvancouver.com

216,000 Jobs aded in March!

Breaking News Alert


The New York Times

Fri, April 01, 2011 -- 8:37 AM ET

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U.S. Added 216,000 Jobs in March; Unemployment Rate at 8.8%



The United States economy added 216,000 jobs in March, as the nation continues a modest recovery.



The unemployment rate last month was 8.8 percent, down slightly from 8.9 percent in February. Overall, the number of jobs created last month was greater than the forecast of 193,000.



Friday's number follows the decline in the weekly unemployment claims, which have fallen steadily, from the mid-400,000s to the neighborhood of 385,000. In almost any other context, the latter would be a grim number indeed. But in this slowest and most sluggish of recoveries, it is a sign of somewhat fewer layoffs.



Still, threats to a more robust recovery remain, including a surge in energy and food prices, with the possibility of disruptions in oil production in the Middle East continuing to weigh on the financial markets. State and local governments have also been shedding jobs as they grapple with budget woes.



Read More:

http://www.nytimes.com?emc=na

MRINetwork Analysis of the BLS Employment Situation Report

This is what I find most exciting as this is the category Professinal Bankers fall into: The management, professional and related occupation unemployment rate fell from 4.8 to 4.4 percent year-over-year.

If you ever needed a reason why it is critical that your children and grandchildren get a four year degree, these economic statistics provide powerful validation!

MRINetwork Analysis of the BLS Employment Situation Report February 2011 Employment The full report can be seen here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm. This morning, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. unemployment rate fell from 9.0 to 8.9 percent in February. The private sector added 222,000 jobs, while the state and local level governments shed 30,000 positions. The gains were in line with economists’ estimates, and combined with positive revisions to the data of previous months, mark a sizable improvement in the rate of recovery to the labor market. This improvement is being strongly driven by those with four-year degrees, a segment of the population in which employment rose by 266,000 positions in February after having added 227,000 in January, a month where there were 63,000 net job gains. The management, professional and related occupation unemployment rate fell from 4.8 to 4.4 percent year-over-year. The unemployment rate for construction and extraction related occupations—traditionally high in the winter—fell from 26.5 percent from a year ago to 22 percent this February. The sales and related occupations unemployment rate also fell from 10.2 to 9.0 percent year-over-year By industry, job growth was well distributed with gains in several industries said to be harbingers of wider economic growth, such as construction, 33,000, durable goods manufacturing, 30,000, transportation and warehousing, 22,000, and accommodations and food service, 15,500.  Health care also continued to grow, adding 34,000 jobs during the month and nearly a quarter million jobs in the last year. A sustained growth rate of approximately 200,000 positions per month is what the U.S. needs to make up for population gains to see a gradual, fundamental reduction in the unemployment rate.  Revisions show that in three of the last five months we have very nearly approached that level and there is every reason to expect that such growth will continue in the near term. Job growth, however, is only taking place among workers with some college and mostly those with four-year degrees and higher. For workers without any higher education, the employment picture isn’t changing as fast. Among the long-term unemployed, this barrier to entry will continue to be an issue. The average length of unemployment reached 37.1 weeks in February, an increase of 7.3 weeks from a year ago.
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