Actual employment numbers not that bad

Outside the Box

June 3, 2011, 2:48 p.m. EDT

Actual employment numbers not that bad
Commentary: Just take a look at the not-seasonally-adjusted data
By Lee Adler


QUEBEC (MarketWatch) — The market was disappointed with today’s employment data. But actual total employment, as opposed to the widely reported seasonally adjusted numbers, was nowhere near the catastrophe that the market’s reaction made it seem. The problem was that economists’ expectations were misguided, partly as a result of their focus on seasonally adjusted fictitious data, which showed a gain of 54,000 for May.

Actual (not-seasonally-adjusted) payrolls were up 682,000, according to the BLS establishment survey. That’s not gangbusters in relation to other years, but it’s not that bad. Since 2001, the average gain in payrolls in May has been 764,000. 2010 had a very strong gain of 1.10 million. That number was an outlier. The best year before that was 2007 at 942,000.

Today’s reported numbers were worse than non-recession years, however. Only 2008 at 570,000 and 2009 at 269,000 were worse.

In addition to the establishment survey, the BLS also surveys households. The total number of employed persons (actual, not seasonally adjusted) according to the BLS household survey rose by 367,000. The average gain in total employed in May from 2001 to 2010 was 344,000. From this perspective, today’s number was a little better than average.

Employment growth had been slowing early this year. The histrionics surrounding today’s announcement are an artifact of the fact that many economists had assumed without good reason that the numbers would be much better. However, the unadjusted actual numbers in the household survey had shown a decline in growth momentum since the end of last year, and today’s data simply continues that trend. The slowing employment growth momentum this year has been concurrent with the decline in stimulus spending that spurred the employment gains in the first place. In that context, slowing employment growth should have surprised no one.

Employment usually peaks in July of each year. Total employment usually peaks in July. Therefore, we should find out just how weak the employment trend is over the next couple of months. The question is whether last year’s peak employment numbers will be broken, and if so, by how much. The first few months of seasonal decline in the second half could show a shift to negative momentum if the usual second half employment declines are greater than last year’s.

The population has been growing faster than employment. Even if total employment grows slightly year over year, if the growth is less than population growth, the employment-to-population ratio will continue to fall. Even though the economy might grow in nominal terms life will get harder for a growing number of Americans.

But to Wall Street and the markets, that matters not.

Lee Adler is the publisher of The Wall Street Examiner.

see full article: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/actual-employment-numbers-not-that-bad-2011-06-03?link=MW_latest_news