Employment Summary for October 2012 The Labor Department reported that 171,000 jobs were added in October while the unemployment rate rose from 7.8 to 7.9 percent as workforce participation increased. Positive revisions to September and August also added a combined 84,000 positions to the previously reported levels. During the first 10 months of 2012, employment growth has now averaged 157,000 jobs per month, about 32,000 positions a month faster than the U.S. workforce grew over the same period last year. The management, business and financial operations occupations unemployment rate fell on a year-over-year basis from 4.7 percent to 3.6 percent in 2012. In late 2010, that rate had reached as high as 5.7 percent before starting to decline to its current point. The bachelor’s degree unemployment rate fell sharply from 4.1 percent to 3.8 percent. While the participation rate for bachelor’s degree holders fell during the month, exaggerating the unemployment rate’s drop, total employment for the group actually grew by 346,000 positions, while unemployment fell by 139,000. On an industry basis, growth was largely contained to the private service-providing sector, though specialty trade contractors did add 16,800 jobs during the month. Retail trade added a seasonally adjusted 36,400 positions leading up to what is widely expected to be a strong holiday shopping season. Food and drinking places added 22,900 jobs, while healthcare added 30,500 positions. While September’s report, showing a .3 percent drop in the unemployment rate, was widely seen as very positive, its one significant deficit was that a large portion of the job growth (582,000) was attributable to part-time positions. In October’s report, the trend reversed itself as those employed part-time for economic reasons fell by 269,000 and those positions presumably became full-time. This most recent report is clearly one of the best yet recorded in 2012 and many of its underlying figures seem to add more foundation to the stability of the labor market and the economy. Not just more employment is evident, but better employment: full-time positions, four-year degreed employees, and many in professional fields. It should be noted, however, that the employment reports have been a fickle thing over the past several years. Positive reports in the last half of the year have been tempered by slowing growth in the first half. With the European Union’s unemployment rate holding at a record high of 10.6 percent, growth in Asia still slowing, and with the U.S. government’s as of yet unresolved “fiscal cliff” looming, there is reason to be cautious while we look to see if this rate of growth will continue into next year. Nevertheless, more than at any point in the last several years, there may also be more reason to be optimistic. 1801 Market Street, 13th Floor Philadelphia, PA 19103 www.MRINetwork.com The full Bureau of Labor Statistics report can be downloaded here: If you would no longer like to receive e-mails, simply [[Email Opt Out Link]].

June 2012 First Friday!

"The professional and managerial unemployment rate fell to 3.7 percent in April, its lowest point since 2008. While the rate fell to below 2 percent before the recession began, the current level is quickly approaching so-called "full employment." According to ADP 133,000 private sector jobs were added in May, a 20,000 increase from April.  I am looking forward to continued positive growth for the balance of the year.

June 2012 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Featured ArticleThree Years After Recession a Long-Tail Emerges Notable Global Events Spotlight on the Russia Unemployment is Low but Clouds Forming Spotlight on MichiganRebounding Economy Generates Optimism • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Bank recruiting has changed dramatically over the last few years. It has gone from Special Asset experts & cost control to Producers who can generate revenue. Those in demand are those with a passion for and proven history of production. This is an exciting transition and shows the strength rebuilding within the industry. Featured Article Three Years After Recession a Long-Tail Emerges As Tolstoy famously said, "The strongest of all warriors are these two – time and patience." On the tail end of fighting through the longest recession in the memories of most alive today, time has brought about many changes. In the first quarter of 2009, more than 2 million jobs disappeared. On March 6, 2009, the Dow closed at 6626 and by the end of the year unemployment had risen to 10 percent. In the first quarter of 2012, more than 600,000 jobs were added, the Dow reached over 13000 points and unemployment nearly fell below 8 percent. "People experience recessions in such slow motion that they don't realize how far things have come. The economy came out of recession three years ago, but it’s left a residue on our perceptions," says Rob Romaine, president of MRINetwork. "When faced with vacancies, managers still fall back on the recessionary mindset of the candidate pool being plentiful, though even in the depths of the recession that wasn’t necessarily true for many types of roles." The professional and managerial unemployment rate fell to 3.7 percent in April, its lowest point since 2008. While the rate fell to below 2 percent before the recession began, the current level is quickly approaching so-called "full employment." A tightening labor market, though, isn't the entire story. While 3.7 percent of professionals may be out of a job today, as you layer on specific qualifications, backgrounds, or years of experience, the number of candidates actively seeking a job can drop to virtually zero," notes Romaine. The poor hiring environment for college graduates over the last several years also creates a new challenge. A recent survey by CALinnovates showed 70 percent of companies were planning to hire college graduates in the coming year, up 26 points from 2011, indicating just how poor graduate hiring was during the recession. The recession disproportionately derailed or delayed the careers of people who graduated college as early as 2005. Now, as employers are trying to hire lower-middle managers—those with between five and ten years of experience—they will be hiring from this significantly diminished population. The long shadow of the recession will be seen in a deficiency of talent availability for at least another decade. At the same time, Baby Boomers are no longer delaying retirement at the rate they were three years ago. This vacuum at the top is helping to pull talent who had established careers prior to the recession up the corporate ladder, but is exacerbating the donut hole that currently ranges from about one to six years of experience. "Even if the economy was at a standstill, the world never stopped moving and generations continued to age. Babies who were born when the recession began will be entering first grade this fall,” notes Romaine. "There is never a bottomless pool of active talent in the first place, but the recession has made it so that whatever pool there currently exists is only likely to get smaller." Notable Global Events Unemployment in Australia fell in April 0.2 points to 4.9 percent after nearly a year of detrition. While Australia’s growth is still limited to the resources sector, it appears to again be outpacing non-resource sector contraction. The youth unemployment rate in Greece reached 51.2 percent in January, the most recently available period. Total unemployment reached 21.7 percent, up from 14.7 percent a year earlier. Spotlight on Russia Unemployment is Low but Clouds Forming In April, the unemployment rate in Russia plummeted to a four-year low, falling to 5.8 from 6.5 percent in March, indicating a tightening labor market. That tightening labor market is leading to an increased interest in Russia by European executives and mid-level professionals. Wages have largely equalized between Russia and Western Europe since the fall of communism more than two decades ago, while income taxes have remained far lower. That Russia continues to grow while Europe's economy appears stagnant is making the country—especially the area around Moscow—a popular refuge for professionals. That growth, however, is slowing. After a strong start to the year, Russia’s economy lost steam in April. Annualized growth fell from 3.9 to 3.7 percent, according to the Economic Development Ministry in its monthly report. The slowing growth is in contrast to an unexpectedly robust first quarter in which GDP growth averaged over 4.6 percent from a year earlier. While not unexpected, the deceleration—projected by many economists—poses a challenge for returning President Vladimir Putin. After reaching the constitutionally mandated term limits in 2008, Putin returned to the role of prime minister for four years before running for and winning a non-consecutive third term in 2012. He was sworn in in March and pledged to improve the climate for businesses in Russia. Many of the factors that impair Russian’s economy today, though, are far from Moscow's control, such as falling crude oil prices (down 15 percent in May) and the worsening outlook in Europe. With fewer possibilities for international growth, Russia must look to domestic markets, but those are proving unreliable. Russia's domestic retail climate is being weighed down by inflation driven by explosive salary growth. Year-over-year retail growth stood at 6.4 percent in April, down from 7.3 percent in March, despite nominal wages rising as much as 14.3 percent. In the second half of the year, the government is expected to enact a delayed increase in utility costs, which will diminish consumers' disposable incomes. The low unemployment rate is also likely to boost inflation as companies look to hike prices rather than grow production capacity. Economists are understandably keeping a close eye on Russia's data as the economy is displaying mixed signals. Putin will need to stabilize inflation and boost international demand for products and commodities while its largest export partner—the European Union—remains unable to grow and their second-largest trading partner—China—begins to decelerate. Spotlight on Michigan Rebounding Economy Generates Optimism Michigan's economy is recovering from the recession at the second-fastest pace in the U.S., lifted by a revival among carmakers and local manufacturers, according to a new Bloomberg index that tracks the pace of state growth. Home to the U.S. automobile industry, Michigan was topped only by North Dakota, where an oil boom is raising incomes and boosting government coffers. Over the past year, the Michigan economy has added 59,300 new jobs, and about half of those—26,000—have been in manufacturing, reflecting a strong rebound in the automotive sector. Economists believe this dramatic improvement provides additional evidence that the manufacturing sector, especially in the Midwest’s heartland, is at the forefront of the nation’s economic expansion. "There's an increasingly optimistic attitude among business people that we haven't seen for a long time in Michigan," says Mark Angott, president of Angott Search Group, an MRINetwork affiliate in Rochester. "This is due in great part to the kind of leadership that’s coming out of the governor's office. Rick Snyder came from the business world and is promoting a take-charge mindset in Lansing." Home sales have also risen and the number of first-time filings for unemployment benefits has dropped off considerably. "These gains can be attributed largely to the rebound of the automobile industry," observes Angott. "Although we've seen improvement across all service industries, automobile suppliers still drive the state’s economy." With auto sales recently topping an annualized rate of 15 million vehicles, consumers seem to be unleashing some of the pent-up demand they've been holding in since 2007. And the auto rebound is spreading to other parts of the Michigan economy, boosting economic conditions to their best levels in six years. According to a new Comerica Bank estimate of the state's economy, the recovery is moving beyond Detroit’s Big Three. A trend reflected in jobs reports indicates that during the past 12 months, the state added as many jobs in business and professional services as it did in manufacturing. Business investment projects have risen 70 percent from last year's level, partly fueled by innovative programs encouraging business growth. One such program, recently announced by the Michigan Economic Development Corporation (MEDC), is aimed at helping smaller companies break into the Chinese market. "China, the world’s fastest-growing economy, has a rapidly developing consumer market," says Angott. "Big American companies like GM have made big profits selling to Chinese consumers, but it can be confusing and expensive for smaller companies to tap into this market." Now in its third year of recovery after a debilitating recession, Michigan has good reason for optimism. With the strongest job growth in the high-wage segment, the state can expect to see a sustained, moderately paced recovery through 2014, led by manufacturing and diffusing into other sectors.

Analysis of the BLS Employment Situation Report

MRINetwork Analysis of the BLS Employment Situation Report April 2012 Employment The full report can be seen here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm. According to the Labor Department, total employment grew in the United States by 115,000 positions in April, the 19th straight month of job growth. The unemployment rate dropped from 8.2 to 8.1 percent and from 10 percent two years earlier. Revisions to March's numbers showed 153,000 jobs added, up from the 120,000 jobs previously reported. The professional, managerial, and related occupations unemployment rate, which reached as high as 5.5 percent in 2009, fell to 3.7 percent in April. Retail trade added 29,000 positions, countering a loss of 32,000 positions reported last month. However, there has been no significant trend in that sector, which has only added 19,000 jobs in total since December. Professional and business services added 62,000 jobs in April, a third of which came from temporary staffing firms. Architectural and engineering services and computer design services both added a little more than 7,400 positions. The only significant decline in the report was a loss of 16,600 positions in transportation and warehousing, 11,000 of which were from transit and ground passenger transportation. The unemployment rate for those with a bachelor's degree and higher fell from 4.2 to 4 percent in April, bringing that sector to less than half the average unemployment rate of all other levels of education, 9.1 percent. April, though, saw improving numbers for those with lower levels of academic achievement. The unemployment rate for those with a high school diploma, but no college, has fallen from 9.7 to 7.9 percent from a year earlier, almost equal to the 7.6 percent rate of unemployment among those with either some college or an associate's degree. April's employment report failed to meet the expectations of economists, who were expecting more than 160,000 jobs to be added. Yet, the report is more positive than some predicted following the ADP report released in advance of the Labor Department's numbers, which showed a strong deceleration from March's employment growth.

May 2012 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Featured ArticleAs Job Market Improves, Candidates Notice Notable Global Events Spotlight on the Chile Retail Demand Replaces Commodities Spotlight on New MexicoBoosting Private Industry • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • "With both the larger regionals as well as smaller community banks having improved outlooks, head count reduction initiatives of past years have been replaced by active hiring from entry level to senior manager levels," As quoted in The Birmingham News April 21, 2012 Featured Article As Job Market Improves, Candidates Notice In the depths of the recession, as unemployment rates were rising and everyone knew someone who was being affected, “It’s better than no job at all” became a common refrain across the factory floors and offices of America. While it was a poor retention strategy, it was a worse recruiting strategy and now, with the economy on the mend, candidates are no longer falling for it. “Candidates now know—as much, if not more than hiring managers—that the market is improving,” says Rob Romaine, president of MRINetwork. “Top candidates are getting multiple offers, and those who don’t like what they hear from one employer are more frequently willing to wait for another suitor.” Employment growth was below expectations in March, with just 120,000 positions added compared to more than 200,000 in some projections. Though that had followed four months in which more than a million positions were added collectively. The rate of growth is expected to remain decidedly slower for the remainder of the year. But, short of the U.S. economy slipping back into to a major recession—something almost no economist is projecting—the labor market is going to remain competitive. “It’s dangerous to underestimate the competitiveness of the labor market. Companies are pursuing plans, bidding on business, and making projections, only to later realize that it is taking many months for their internal HR departments to fill the roles and often at higher starting salaries than expected,” notes Romaine. The job openings rate has risen from 1.8 percent in the worst of the recession to 2.5 percent in February. Over the same time, the hires rate has risen from 2.8 to 3.3 percent, while the separations rate has fallen from 3.5 to 3.1 percent.  While the positions available and being filled span almost all sectors of the economy, the bulk of employees being hired share one thing in common: four-year college degrees. Since March of 2011, total employment by those with a Bachelor’s degree or higher has risen by more than 1 million positions. Total employment by those with less than a Bachelor’s degree, though, has actually shrunk by 218,000 positions. The unemployment rate for those in management, professional, and related occupations has fallen to 4.2 percent, and when you look at more technical fields, the rate begins to approach full employment. “Candidates have realized how rare a commodity they are, but when an employer isn’t making them feel courted, somebody else will,” says Romaine. “It’s not that top performers are demanding the red carpet treatment during the hiring process, but when they have multiple offers, the style of the process can be as important as the substance of the opportunity.” Notable Global Events The euro zone’s unemployment rate continued to rise in February, reaching 10.8 percent. A proposal in front of the European Commission is suggesting cutting labor taxes while raising use taxes to spur employment growth. The Bank of Korea recently lowered its GDP growth projections for 2012 from 3.7 to 3.5 percent with a statement tying the downgrade to projected euro zone contractions. Unemployment in South Korea, though, was down to 3.4 percent in March from 3.7 percent a month earlier. Spotlight on Chile Retail Demand Replaces Commodities Throughout the recession, Chile has been able to temper the drops in the global economy with the rising demand and price of copper—a resource of which Chile is the world’s largest producer. With the global economy still wobbling, seeing a decrease in demand for copper should have signaled the beginning of a slowdown in the country, and, while that may still happen, it hasn’t yet. In March 2012, total copper production fell 2.6 percent from a year earlier, while other natural resources like wood and oil fell even further to 7.7 and 13.9 percent respectively. Yet, Chilean consumers seemed to move in the opposite direction, causing consumer sales to surge in retail and supermarkets. Retail sales have risen as much as 9.2 percent from a year ago, despite five separate interest rate increases last year targeted at slowing domestic demand. While manufacturing has also slowed, economists expect the Chilean central bank to continue to raise interest rates in light of continued consumer demand. Inflation in Chile has remained high throughout the global recession, despite briefly slipping into negative growth itself, in large part because of the rising price of copper. In February, the annual inflation rate had reached 4.4 percent, though it declined to 3.8 percent in March. Chile’s GDP is expected to grow between 4 and 5 percent in 2012 after a robust 6 percent growth in 2011.That growth has helped push down its unemployment rate, which has fallen to 6.6 from 7.3 percent a year earlier. While 6.6 percent unemployment is low compared to many developed economies today, Chile’s Finance Minister Felipe Larrain has gone on record calling the falling rate “near full employment.” In comments related to a Chilean bond issuance in late April, Larrain highlighted the unemployment rate and said the government is aiming to increase labor-force participation, especially among women, as the economy continues to grow. It was a sentiment echoed by a Goldman Sachs Group economist in an email to investors, which reported that Chile’s “labor market remains tight,” and that “the economy is operating at around full employment.” In the coming months, eyes will turn toward Chilean manufacturing numbers to see if the retail spike is going to translate into more production. Should the domestic market continue to remain strong, it should help to counteract a seasonal rise in unemployment going into the summer months. Spotlight on New Mexico Boosting Private Industry When an extraterrestrial flying saucer crashed in the desert outside Roswell, New Mexico, in the summer of 1947, its landing was clearly impeded by the lack of proper spaceport facilities in New Mexico—or anywhere on Earth for that matter. Over the last several years, the State of New Mexico has been working to rectify that deficiency by constructing Spaceport America, the country’s first commercial space launch and recovery facility. The spaceport is a very small, albeit glamorous, part of a concerted effort by New Mexico to expand private industry and employment in a state where nearly one in four workers are employed by the government. Nationally, the average is less than one government employee for every six workers. “Trying to change the balance between the public and private economies is something governors in New Mexico have been struggling with for 25 years,” says Paula Ancona, Managing Partner of Management Recruiters of the Sandias outside of Albuquerque. “Since Governor Susana Martinez took office, though, expectations have been higher than ever before. She has already helped to bring hundreds of new, high-paying technology jobs to New Mexico, and in a state the size of ours, that’s a meaningful amount.” A sizable part of the government presence in New Mexico is from high-tech scientific, defense, and research-related roles. The Los Alamos National Laboratory, established by Robert Oppenheimer as the home for the Manhattan Project, employs more than 9,000. Ancona notes though that in many of the non-scientific positions she places in the state, there is a limited pool of talent with private sector experience. Candidates frequently have to be sourced from surrounding states, if not farther away, making filling more specialized roles even more difficult. “Intellectually, hiring managers understand tight the market is. They’ll say they know the candidate they are looking for might not exist. Yet, they’ll still hold out for that pedigree, while passing on world-class talent without so much as an interview,” says Ancona. “The attitude is that if they’ve got time to keep looking, they’ll take it.” That perception might not be all wrong. While many Western states—Nevada and California for example—saw economic bubbles that burst in the last few years, New Mexico never had the same level of buildup. Then again, with such a large concentration of professional-level government and government-related employment, they also didn’t take the hit that others did. “Companies are especially looking to add roles along the lines of business development positions,” notes Ancona. “But it’s measured growth, and cautious decisions are being made with a heavy eye on quality—quality of product, quality of services and consequently, quality of talent.”

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